Why Apple's Foldable iPhone Isn't a Thing... Yet

At its annual Unpacked August event, Samsung launched the fourth generation of its foldable phones. There's the new Galaxy Z Flip 4, a clamshell phone with a screen that folds in half to fit in your pocket. Then there's the Galaxy Z Fold 4, a tablet that folds down to roughly the size of a regular phone. Emphasis on "roughly."

And Samsung isn't the only company making phones with foldable screens. There's also the Motorola Razr. And outside the US, Huawei and Xiaomi also have foldable phones. Which leaves us with an obvious question: Where's Apple's foldable iPhone?

Apple doesn't comment on future products
The first thing to consider is that Apple doesn't announce products until they're ready. OK, there was the AirPower wireless charging pad. But otherwise Apple isn't going to tell us it's working on a foldable iPhone or confirm rumors.

Next, Apple typically positions products as a solution to a problem, highlighting quality and innovation.

The Galaxy Z Fold seems less like an answer to a problem and more of a "look at this tech wizardry, what can we do with it!" And the cool-factor, as ingenious as it is, comes at the expense of features we expect from regular phones, including battery life, ergonomics, software experience and price. The Galaxy Z Flip solves the problem of portability, but it comes with some of the same drawbacks as the Fold, particularly around battery life and camera quality.

To be fair, the Galaxy Z Fold 3 took a significant step forward by embracing its large main screen and adding support for Samsung's S Pen stylus. And the Z Fold 4's improved Flex Mode for apps seems like it might tip the balance, making the Fold more useful than just cool.

If Apple were to release a foldable iPhone, what problem would it solve? Could it be an iPhone Flip, replacing the iPhone 13 Mini by offering you a big screen that's still pocket-friendly? Or will it be an iPhone Fold -- more like an iPad Mini that folds in half, making its closed size more like the iPhone 13 Pro Max? Or will we see a design that doesn't exist yet? What about an iPhone Roll, where the screen unrolls like an expanding window shade? That's where rumors start to enter the picture.

iPhone Fold Rumors
Back in January 2021, Mark Gurman wrote for Bloomberg that Apple "has begun early work on an iPhone with a foldable screen, a potential rival to similar devices from Samsung."

And in May of 2021, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said, as reported by MacRumors, that "Apple will likely launch a foldable iPhone with an 8-inch QHD Plus flexible OLED display in 2023." He revised his prediction, in a tweet this past April, to say that it might be 2025 before there's a foldable screen device from Apple. It's also worth noting that Kuo's tweet was on April 1, which means it could have been an April Fool's joke.

Both Gurman and Kuo have excellent track records when it comes to Apple rumors. So if these reports are accurate, we'll see a foldable iPhone in 2025. It will be about the size of an iPad Mini and it'll fold in half. End of story. But hold on.

How to make a foldable iPhone
Before Apple makes a foldable iPhone, it has to figure out how to make a foldable iPhone. Research company Omdia claims that in 2021, 11.5 million foldable phones shipped. Apple sells hundreds of millions of iPhones a year. So if it makes a foldable iPhone, it has to be certain that it can manufacture the phones at the same quality and in a high enough quantity to meet demand. More times than not when Apple introduces a radical hardware change -- like 2014's iPhone 6 Plus and its larger screen -- those models are hard to find at launch because they sell out quickly. Sometimes they're given a later release date, as we saw with the iPhone 12 Mini and 12 Pro Max launch.

Then there's the physical complexity that needs to be considered. Foldable phones have numerous mechanical parts that could malfunction or wear, such as hinge components that keep dust out and the various layers behind the folding screen. In fact, when journalists tested review units of the original Galaxy Fold, the device was plagued by hinge and display failures. That was years ago, of course, and Samsung has since fixed those issues. But it shows what can happen with first-gen products.